March 16, 2009

In Search of a Dramatic Equilibrium: Was the Armenian Dram Overvalued?

CRRC-Armenia hold a lecture-discussion "In Search of a Dramatic Equilibrium: Was the Armenian Dram Overvalued?" conducted by IMF Resident Representative in Armenia, Nienke Oomes, on March 13, 2009, in YSU Conference Hall. The lecture presented the main findings of a recent IMF paper developed by Dr. Oomes together with former and current economists in the IMF Armenia Office (G. Minasyan and A. Stepanyan).

The estimation of the equilibrium exchange rate for Armenia was presented using three different approaches: the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, and the external sustainability (ES) approach. All three approaches suggested that the dram was overvalued by about 20–30 percent prior to the devaluation of the dram in March 2009.

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