By Jan Bednorz,
This
blog post uses the results of the Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) conducted in
2010 and 2016 by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development as well
as the Caucasus Barometer 2011 and 2017 datasets, in order to analyse the attitudes
towards democracy and perceptions of democratic institutions in Armenia. Those
perceptions are then collated with actual evaluations of Armenian democracy
provided by organisations such as the Freedom House, the Economist and the World
Economic Forum.
Source: LiTS 2016, Country assessments: Armenia. Available at: http://litsonline-ebrd.com/countries/armenia/.
These perceptions seem to be confirmed by actual measures delivered by international organisations and watchdogs. Armenia is ‘partly free’ according to Freedom in the World report delivered by the Freedom House and placed on 136th place among 210 countries measured, even behind a number of Sub-Saharan African states. The Economist’s Democracy Index puts Armenia just slightly above a threshold between an ‘authoritarian’ and ‘hybrid’ regime. Moreover, the Democracy Index score has remained more or less stagnant since its introduction in 2006, while the Freedom House’s rating has actually slightly declined in comparison to the first measurement in 1998. Another indicator, Inclusive Development Index (IDI), by the World Economic Forum, although does acknowledge a positive economic growth over recent years, it also shows deterioration of ‘inclusion’ factor, meaning deepening wealth inequalities and declining intergenerational equity – features associated with extractive regimes rather than democracies.
The content of this blog is the sole responsibility of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC-Armenia.
CRRC-Armenia Intern
In the academic world of economics, it is
widely agreed that democracy is a necessary precondition to achieve a long-term
inclusive growth and thus, broad and sustained prosperity (see for example:
Acemoglu and Robinson 2013, Acemoglu et. al. 2014; Madsen, Raschky & Skali
2015). This stance prevails to some extent in Armenia – according to LiTS 2016,
66% of people pointed democracy as a preferable political system (or 48%
according to Caucasus Barometer 2017). Although it falls well behind Western
European attitudes, that is significantly higher than the average for the
transitioning countries. Armenia has also one of the lowest levels of approval
for an authoritarian regime (even lower than Western Europe), which shape at 7%
or 10% as reported in LiTS and Caucasus Barometer respectively. However, the
worrying fact is that the support for democracy has actually weakened over past
years: down 10 percentage points from 76% in 2010 (LiTS) or down 7 percentage
points from 55% in 2011 (Caucasus Barometer). Also, strikingly notable share of
Armenians (27% and 31% according to LiTS and Caucasus Barometer respectively)
claim that “for someone like them it [the political regime] doesn’t matter”.
There is a huge difference though between a
‘paper’ democracy (often meaning not more than holding elections of limited
credibility once in a while) and true liberal democracy which manifests itself
in people’s ability to control and change government, politicians being
restricted by the rule of law and prevailing values of social solidarity and
participation. Most Armenians find virtually all of the basic democratic values
and institutions non-existent, falling far behind not only European perceptions
but also those of other transitioning countries. Less than 20% respondents
indicated that Armenia had law and order, fair justice system and political
opposition; less than 10% believes in fairness of elections (see Figure 1).
Also Caucasus Barometer results indicate that as much as 70% find the country
to be not democratic at all (33%) or democratic but with major flaws (37%);
only 3% considers Armenia to be a full democracy.
Figure
1. Percentage of respondents who agree that the country has these
basic democratic institutions.
 |
Source: LiTS 2016, Country assessments: Armenia. Available at: http://litsonline-ebrd.com/countries/armenia/.
These perceptions seem to be confirmed by actual measures delivered by international organisations and watchdogs. Armenia is ‘partly free’ according to Freedom in the World report delivered by the Freedom House and placed on 136th place among 210 countries measured, even behind a number of Sub-Saharan African states. The Economist’s Democracy Index puts Armenia just slightly above a threshold between an ‘authoritarian’ and ‘hybrid’ regime. Moreover, the Democracy Index score has remained more or less stagnant since its introduction in 2006, while the Freedom House’s rating has actually slightly declined in comparison to the first measurement in 1998. Another indicator, Inclusive Development Index (IDI), by the World Economic Forum, although does acknowledge a positive economic growth over recent years, it also shows deterioration of ‘inclusion’ factor, meaning deepening wealth inequalities and declining intergenerational equity – features associated with extractive regimes rather than democracies.
Lack of improvement in many aspects of
political and social life over the years might be the reason why people seem to
remain quite pessimistic in terms of past advances as well as possible future
changes. Only 13% agree that economic situation in 2016 was better that 4 years
before, despite an average Armenian being 9% wealthier than in 2012 (based on real
GDP per capita, World Bank Data). This perception correlates with the IDI measure
– the economic growth did happen but was not followed by progress in terms of
poverty reduction, unemployment decline, etc. Furthermore, merely 11% of
respondents think that political situation improved over the same period (LiTS).
According to Caucasus Barometer, just 10% think that the country’s domestic
politics are going mainly (8%) or definitely (2%) in the right direction (see
Figure 2); a staggering 46% do not believe the situation in Armenia will ever improve.
Figure
2. Direction in which country's politics is going.
Source:
Caucasus Barometer 2017 Armenia. Available at: http://www.caucasusbarometer.org/en/cb2017am/POLDIRN-withoutdkra/.
In conclusion, Armenians do realize the
importance of democracy. However, their positive attitude towards it is being
weakened by (justified) lack of trust in existing democratic institutions and
lack of improvement of the political environment over the years. It also
results in very pessimistic views on the future advancements, which might
further lead to a greater political passivity. Also (although economic analysis
was not by any means a purpose of this analysis), a glance at IDI measure seems
to confirm the theory that democracy is indeed correlated with inclusiveness –
in Armenia, better quality of democratic institutions would eventually lead to more
equal growth and reduced poverty and unemployment levels.
References:
- Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2013). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. Broadway Business.
- Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P., & Robinson, J. A. (2014). Democracy does cause growth. National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Caucasus Research Resource Centres. Caucasus Barometer (2011, 2017). Available at: http://www.caucasusbarometer.org/en/.
- Economist (2018). Democracy Index 2017. Available at: http://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/Democracy_Index_2017.pdf.
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2010, 2017). Life in Transition Survey. Available at: http://litsonline-ebrd.com/governance-in-the-transition-region/.
- Freedom House (2018). Freedom in the World 2018. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2018.
- Madsen, J. B., Raschky, P. A., & Skali, A. (2015). Does democracy drive income in the world, 1500–2000?. European Economic Review, 78, 175-195.
- World Bank (2018). World Bank Open Data. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/.
- World Economic Forum (2017). Inclusive Growth and Development Report 2017. Available at: http://reports.weforum.org/inclusive-growth-and-development-report-2017/inclusive-development-index/.
The content of this blog is the sole responsibility of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of CRRC-Armenia.
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